NBL 2022-23 team-by-team season preview (2024)

With possibly the deepest field of contenders the league has seen in many years, it's shaping up to be an incredible season of NBL hoops.

With the Blitz in the books, Olgun Uluc and Kane Pitman got together to bring you a team-by-team preview to get you the preparation you need for the season.

Adelaide 36ers

The season will be a success if...

Let's hand the mic to Robert Franks from Darwin.

"I said championship or bust and I'm going to stand on it. We're so talented on paper, we're so long, so athletic, great defensive minds. For us not to go to the playoffs, not to get to the finals, I think we would fail ourselves in some sort of way in our season and journey."

Championship it is.

What could go wrong?

The NBL season may feel like a grind, but the 28-game slate is closer to a sprint. The 36ers start the season in Round 3 after a trip to the U.S. and if they take some time to get going, they could very quickly end up behind the eight ball. C.J. Bruton and the entire club are aware of the challenges, but it will be worth watching.

Impact newcomer: Antonius Cleveland.

Speaking to teams in Darwin, Cleveland was the name that consistently arose when discussing the most destructive defenders in the league. It's the possibilities on the offensive end that could intrigue, with his transition excellence likely to mesh well with the unselfish Mitch McCarron. It may be a new club, but familiarity with the league will help.

X-Factor: Sunday Dech

Every team wants a player like Dech. Defend and shoot is the role, with Wani Swaka Lo Buluk perfecting the craft for the championship winning Kings last season. I would expect the looks will improve on the 36ers loaded roster, so an improvement on his 32.8% clip from last season seems reasonable to expect.

Over or Under 13.5 wins: Over.

Bold prediction for 2022: Kai Sotto can earn a starting role by the end of the season.

Daniel Johnson has been a lock and a walking double-double forever, but the 36ers are not going to be lacking for offence in the starting group. On paper, the idea of a legitimate lob threat and elite rim protector is enticing. The opportunities for minutes will be there and if Sotto starts NBL23 strongly there's no reason to believe he couldn't become a major factor.

Kane Pitman

Brisbane Bullets

The season will be a success if...

A top four finish is secured. On paper the names are impressive, but there are genuine questions around the big three of Sobey, Baynes and Johnson due to their time off the court in recent seasons. Brisbane haven't reached the postseason since 2018-19 and enter the season with a very clear bar of breaking that streak.

What could go wrong? This one is easy. Health.

It was a huge bonus to see Baynes and Sobey on the floor in Darwin, with Sobey no guarantee as late as only a few weeks ago with his persistent knee soreness due to bone bruising. It will be a slow build for both to major minutes, but any lengthy absence would be a crushing blow to Brisbane.

Impact newcomer: DJ Mitchell

Mitchell reached double-digit scoring in his two appearances in the Blitz, clocking 20+ minutes in each in what could be an indication of a big role in NBL23. At 6'8" with an ability to shoot from the outside, he will have plenty of opportunities to score in line-ups alongside the marquee names on the roster.

X-Factor: Tyler Johnson

It feels odd to put the player with the resume of Johnson down as an x-factor when the expectations are high from the outside, but it's more about fit with this roster. Sobey has been crying out for back court support for years alongside Jason Cadee and now they have it in the NBA veteran. While his own production is expected to be impressive, his presence may give Sobey the type of freedom he is yet to experience in a Bullets jersey.

Over or Under 13.5 wins: Over.

Bold prediction for 2022: Brisbane finish top four defence.

The Bullets were second last in defensive rating last season, though the expectations will be high with the addition of Baynes in the middle. Those in the building in Darwin left with a very clear indication of just how vocal the NBA champion can be, with Baynes setting the standards in demonstrative fashion.

"I know I'm very demanding of players around me but that's what we need, that's what I need from them," Baynes told ESPN.

Kane Pitman

Watch every game of the 2022/23 NBL season LIVE only on ESPN

Cairns Taipans

The season will be a success if...

 Adam Forde and co. have nailed all three imports.

The Taipans don't have the experience or depth to get away with sub-par imports, so that's largely what their season is riding on. DJ Hogg already looks really impressive as a super-skilled forward who can score at all three levels, and we're aware of the two-way impact Tahjere McCall can have on an NBL game. The jury is still out on Shannon Scott but, if all three imports show themselves to be high-level contributors for the majority of the season, then Cairns has the potential to flirt with the postseason.

What could go wrong? Their youth catches up to them.

There's no two ways about it: the Taipans' local contingent is young and inexperienced, and that's not usually the recipe for short-term success in the NBL. It also doesn't help when the team's only preseason games came at the NBL Blitz, and they seemed to barely run any sets. With a relatively small amount of pro years under their respective belts, let alone postseason experience, the Taipans' depth may prove to be an issue.

Impact newcomer: Sam Waardenburg

Waardenburg, a rookie big-man, only played a handful of minutes at the Blitz, so it's difficult to tell how his game will translate from college to the pros. Five minutes of watching him warm up, however, tells you that his jump-shot is pure and he has legitimate range. Speak with any Taipans player and they'll praise his passing from the top of the key and high post. The Kiwi will be a starter for Adam Forde's team, and it shouldn't take long for him to start impressing.

X-factor: Shannon Scott

The fit here is an interesting one. McCall is the primary ball-handler on this team, so there's a sense that putting another traditional off-guard or wing alongside he and Hogg -- who fits that description, too -- would've made more sense. Scott has shown himself to be a streaky shooter, solid defender, and there's backup point guard minutes he can slip into, but how he fits with the existing McCall-dominant offence will be the key to his personal and team success.

Over or Under 13.5 wins: Under

Bold prediction: The Taipans finish with the worst record... but with two All-NBL players.

There are a few teams that are likely to be fighting for the wooden spoon, and the Taipans are unfortunately among that group. There isn't enough high-end talent and the ancillary guys just haven't demonstrated enough to put a ton of trust in them to lift the team to enough wins. In saying that, there's a lot to like from McCall and Hogg, both of whom should flirt with All-NBL selections, while making this team extremely watchable.

Olgun Uluc

Illawarra Hawks

The season will be a success if...

Jacob Jakomas can build an identity with a new-look roster in Illawarra.

Working alongside Brian Goorjian for a long period of time, Jakomas is stepping into the main chair. By his own admission, he is learning on the job, but does so with three key starters removed from last year's postseason campaign. Being in the mix for the Play-In tournament would be impressive.

What could go wrong? Plenty.

Xavier Rathan-Mayes and Antonius Cleveland each expressed their desire to return to Illawarra in NBL23 but the club preferred to head in a new direction. Goorjian is gone, former president Dorry Kordahi stood down in April and the club has an entirely new look on and off the court. That opens the door for all possibilities...including the bad ones.

Impact newcomer: Justin Robinson

Robinson was an every night player with the defending NBA champion Milwaukee Bucks for a period last season but his role will be drastically different in the NBL. Jakomas told ESPN they are encouraging Robinson to tap into his scoring ability, with his natural inclination to facilitate for his teammates. He should average 18+ points a night.

X-Factor: Mangok Mathiang

After a cup of coffee in the NBA with the Charlotte Hornets, Mathiang has bounced around Europe and endured serious injury concerns. Back healthy, his return to Australia comes with great opportunity replacing Reath's major role with the Hawks. After limited minutes in the first two games of the Blitz, a 14-point outing on 6-for-8 shooting against Adelaide provides a nice platform for opening night.

Over or Under 13.5 wins: Under.

Bold prediction for 2022: Sam Froling will be in the mix for All-NBL honours.

It's been a huge offseason for Froling, with the big man playing a prominent role for the Boomers. While Reath was the focal point at the five last year, Froling should be seeing more touches offensively. Being elevated to co-captain alongside Tyler Harvey is an indication of his standing within the organisation.

Kane Pitman

Melbourne United

The season will be a success if... they stay healthy.

It sounds simple, but that's the key to keeping everything in check in Melbourne. It starts with Isaac Humphries, who's shown shades of his former self over the preseason. With no Ariel Hukporti and not much frontcourt depth beyond that, keeping Humphries' body in check is probably priority No. 1 if United wants to compete. It also extends to Chris Goulding and Shea Ili, mostly because both are effectively irreplaceable; one's ability to stretch the floor is vital for everything to work on the offensive end, and the other's leadership is key to this team being consistent defensively.

What could go wrong? United's backcourt and wing depth could severely limit them.

There was an issue with this last season, and it wasn't really something United addressed over the offseason. Vickerman's team just doesn't have much shooting or creativity when it comes to the guards and wings off the bench; something that could be an issue if there's an injury to one of their primary guys.

Impact newcomer: Rayjon Tucker

We'll likely see the ball going through Tucker's hands a lot for United, mostly in transition but also a ton in the half-court. He has a case as the most athletic player in the league, and has the potential to be a really dynamic scorer for a Melbourne team that was lacking it last season.

X-factor: Xavier Rathan-Mayes

We'll more-than-likely see Rathan-Mayes step into that sixth man role when Shea Ili is healthy, and United's outcomes will often be determined by which version of him shows up. If he comes into games and fosters ball movement -- utilising his bigs on rolls, while making the scoring guards around him better -- as opposed to a stagnant, one-on-one style of basketball, then United will be better for it.

Over or Under 13.5: Over

Bold prediction: United makes an import change during the season

To be clear, this isn't reporting. It's more a feel based on what we've seen from United's needs as the team and what we've seen from the imports thus far, and especially since Hukporti's season-ending Achilles injury. They very well may have complete confidence that all three imports will come into their own, with Vickerman's structure on both ends bringing the best out of them, but it wouldn't be a complete shock if United's decision-makers opt for a tweak.

Olgun Uluc

New Zealand Breakers

The season will be a success if...

Not to be too cliché but returning to play in front of home fans will be one of the success stories of the season. Speaking with Will McDowell-White in Darwin, the returning Breakers are simply ecstatic about the idea of having fans cheer for them for the first time since before the pandemic. Additionally, the Australian guard is slated for a more pronounced role this season. If he can grasp the opportunity the Breakers will be in a good spot to be competitive.

What could go wrong? Similar to Illawarra, there are a lot of moving pieces with the Breakers.

Going with two import bigs in Dererk Pardon and Jarrell Brantley is an interesting move given we often see players of that size initially struggle to adjust to the league. With so much roster turnover, institutional knowledge would be critical, though the extended loss of Tom Abercrombie to a nasty eye injury is an early blow. The Breakers are a genuine unknown despite other clubs praising the import additions.

Impact newcomer: Dererk Pardon

If you missed the Breakers at the Blitz, you missed some real highlights from Pardon. A genuine lob threat, the 25-year-old Pardon was pegged at the club's number one target of the offseason.

X-Factor: Izayah Le'Afa

If the Blitz is any indication, the former Phoenix guard will be expected to play major minutes under Mody Maor. At times last year it felt the 25-year-old was asked to do a little too much with the Phoenix, with the expectation that he can slip into a more comfortable role on offence in his homecoming to New Zealand.

Over or Under 13.5 wins: Under.

Bold prediction for 2022: Rayan Rupert slides into the top 10 at the 2023 NBA Draft.

Through a difficult period for the club, the Breakers have become an NBA factory with R.J. Hampton, Ousmane Dieng and Hugo Besson all hearing their names called in recent years. For immediate impact, Rupert looks the best of the lot. His defensive talents are well documented, but his ability to play on or off the ball and a smooth looking outside shot off the dribble or on the catch caught the eye in Darwin. He looks ready.

Kane Pitman

Perth Wildcats

The season will be a success if... Brady Manek finds his groove.

The one player on John Rillie's roster who's yet to find his fit within the Wildcats' structure is Manek, who projects as an elite-level offensive player but wasn't able to completely show it over the preseason. He's been heavy-footed and didn't look completely cohesive with his team over the preseason. His impressive skill set is obvious, though. So, while it may take some time for the former Tar Heel to figure out where his spots are in the NBL; assuming that happens, the Wildcats have an enviable amount of offensive weapons.

What could go wrong? The lack of an inside presence hurts them down the stretch.

TaShawn Thomas is athletic and versatile but is undersized as a centre on a Wildcats team without much depth in that position. Come the postseason when the game slows down, having size is at a premium, and it's the one obvious thing the Wildcats lack, even with Luke Travers likely to emerge as a Best Defensive Player contender and Majok Majok primed to see extended minutes against bigger teams.

Impact newcomer: TaShawn Thomas.

That being said, Thomas looks to be a really good fit with a Wildcats team that looks in mid-season form when it comes to ball and player movement. The big-man brings much-needed athleticism on both ends, and has shown that he can legitimately stretch the floor.

X-factor: Corey Webster

Webster is proven as an elite scorer in FIBA basketball, and could emerge as the perfect sixth or seventh man for these Wildcats. He's a creator who can handle the ball alongside Cotton -- particularly in closing minutes -- and can obviously be complementary to all of the action being run for his three-time MVP teammate.

Over or Under 13.5: Over

Bold prediction: Bryce Cotton wins MVP, but Luke Travers wins Grand Finals MVP.

Cotton is back to being the undisputed best player in the NBL, and will be the primary option again on one of the frontrunners. Come the postseason, though, we've seen opposing teams throw multiple bodies at him. Travers already looks primed for a true breakout season -- the kind where he'll look like an All-NBL talent -- and that means he should be ready to take advantage of being the outlet guy in the playoffs, while bringing his usual defensive chops.

Olgun Uluc

South East Melbourne Phoenix

The season will be a success if...

The Phoenix can rectify a defence that routinely ranks in the bottom few teams.

Only the Bullets and Breakers gave up more points per 100 possessions last season and those two clubs were not close to the postseason mix. Foul trouble plagued the big men last season, with a big question being physical import Alan Williams' ability to stay on the floor and picking up plenty of fouls at the Blitz. The elite rebounding five looms as a major key to success.

What could go wrong? The team never gets healthy.

South East Melbourne enter the season with Ryan Broekhoff (hamstring), Trey Kell III (ribs) and Gary Browne (knee) all on the shelf for a number of games. Browne in particular is not expected to return for an extended period, which leaves the Phoenix with some large roster questions entering opening night.

Impact newcomer: Alan Williams

As mentioned, foul trouble will be the biggest concern for Williams, but his ability to dominate on the glass and create second and third opportunities will be invaluable for Simon Mitchell's squad. He is another of the Phoenix players who is managing his minutes heading into the season, but if he can maintain health, it should be a major addition.

X-Factor: Ryan Broekhoff.

Two soft tissue injuries in the one offseason is not great, but entering his third season with the Phoenix his impact shouldn't be understated. Within the club, personnel rave about his on-court communication, basketball IQ and attention to detail. The 25.8% mark from long range last season is well below his standards and will be a number to watch.

Over or Under 13.5 wins: Over.

Bold prediction for 2022: The Phoenix make an early import change.

On paper I love the roster South East Melbourne have put together, but after fading last season to miss the postseason, the urgency will be high to not let things slide early in the season. Through no fault of the club or the players, the injury bug has hit early and it could force an unfortunate early move.

Writers note: Within 12 hours of this preview going live, the Phoenix have announced the return of Chinese megastar Zhou Qi. Back for a second season in Melbourne, Qi gives the Phoenix a point of difference and will allow Alan Williams time to continue to build his conditioning in the early portion of the season.

Kane Pitman

Sydney Kings

The season will be a success if... Dejan Vasiljevic takes a leap.

One of the Kings' heroes from last season's Grand Final series, Vasiljevic has now been thrust forward into a more prominent offensive role, and how he performs could very well dictate how good this team can be. The combo guard will draw more attention from opposing defences than he's ever seen as a pro, and though his recent Australian Boomers campaign -- plus what we know he's capable of-- indicates that he has the ability to take it face on, how he responds will tell us a lot about the Kings' ceiling.

What could go wrong? The imports are too much of a downgrade.

It's not at all controversial to say that not being able to bring back their import trio -- league MVP, Jaylen Adams, as well as Jarell Martin and Ian Clark -- was a monumental loss for the Kings. The offensive output from Derrick Walton, Justin Simon, and Tim Soares will be significantly diminished relative to last season's imports, and whatever improvements made on the defensive end probably don't make up that difference. If things go south for Sydney, a big reason will likely be what they get -- or don't get -- from their new imports.

Impact newcomer: Kouat Noi

Noi is coming into the season with a point to prove, and he showed it throughout the preseason. The former Cairns Taipan has been extremely aggressive attacking the rim, and exhibited some glimpses that he can regain his rookie season form as a reliable spot-up shooter from deep. If the Blitz is anything to go by, don't be surprised to see Noi's name in Sixth Man of the Year talks sooner than later.

X-factor: Tim Soares

Replacing Jarell Martin isn't an easy thing to do, but Soares does have some scoring chops that make him an interesting piece for Chase Buford's team. He excels as a spot-up shooter, but doesn't have the same back-to-the-basket game as his predecessor. How will the Kings fare without that go-to frontcourt player of Martin's calibre? If they can get Soares involved early -- like they did in their final Blitz game; putting the big-man in a position to succeed going toward the rim -- then it'll open up a lot for them.

Over or Under 13.5: Over

Bold prediction: Jackson Makoi works his way into the regular rotation.

The Kings' backcourt rotation looks similar to last season, but there's reason to think the team's new development player could work his way into it. Makoi has positional size that doesn't exist on that roster, and showed during the preseason that he's quite adept at creating and finishing around the rim.

Olgun Uluc

Tasmania JackJumpers

The season will be a success if... the JackJumpers are a top-three defensive team again.

Scott Roth's team has a chance to win every single game they play because they have the best team defence in the NBL. The team works hard, the rotations are quick, and the positioning of their bigs is always on point. It's the foundation of how the team is successful and all of the signs point to them improving on their third-best defensive efficiency from last season.

What could go wrong? If Magnay's injury is worse than first feared

Magnay is already probably going to miss more than we thought when his injury was first announced, and it's particularly tough for the JackJumpers because it means they're without the one thing the team is truly missing: size. Roth's group gets away with undersized bigs for the most part, but they'll go through obvious struggles against any team with relatively decent big-men; see their game against the 36ers at the Blitz.

Impact newcomer: Rashard Kelly

Kelly is a significant upgrade from MiKyle McIntosh because he's someone who can be a target and consistently create his own shot, as opposed to just being complementary to the team's other imports. He's a versatile forward who's already been able to figure out where his spots are in the JackJumpers' flow offence, so look for him to be a top-two scorer for Roth's team.

X-factor: Milton Doyle

Josh Adams was the JackJumpers' big import loss over the offseason, but the early signs from Doyle do look quite promising. He doesn't have the same dynamism as his predecessor but should be able to produce similarly as a scorer and initiator. The swing attribute here is assertiveness, which we've seen a relative lack of in stretches; can Doyle find the perfect balance of playing within his team and exhibiting some necessary selfishness?

Over or Under 13.5: Over

Bold prediction: The JackJumpers are back in the top-four

This may not be particularly bold, considering they're coming off a Grand Finals appearance, but even the JackJumpers would acknowledge how unlikely their ascent was last season. Still, it's time everyone starts treating this team with the respect they've earned. They'll be one of the best defensive teams in the league and already look to be one of the most organised groups on the other end of the floor. They should be back in the postseason.

Olgun Uluc